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El Niño 2015: The Force Is Strong With This One...


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Gold moves around and re-deposits during times of flooding, but the Sierra Nevada has not seen any serious flooding since New Years of 1997. Flooding can cause the renewal and re-formation of paystreaks and re-fill crevices with gold. I remember in the couple years after the 1997 flood, prospectors did very well, taking ounces of gold from places that had been badly pounded for years before that. So it was with great interest today, that I read the following:
 

Every Long-Range Computer Model Forecast Predicting Strong, Or Very Strong El Nino This Winter

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — Every single long-range computer forecast model used by meteorologists predicts a strong, or very strong El Nino for the entire globe this coming winter, the first time that’s happened since 1997. “I think this is the most promising sign of a wet winter in California in nearly 20 years,” said KPIX 5 Meteorologist Paul Deanno.

While no one can ever perfectly predict climate, if a very strong El Nino sets up, California’s history shows in these years, we are in for not only a wet winter, but a devastating one with potentially billions of dollars of damage in flooding, breaches of levees, wind damage, and deaths.

 

I have the following comments:

1) I certainly don't wish for property damage, injury, death and other suffering, but California and Nevada could certainly use a very rainy year. The drought is causing its own form of suffering among the residents, and it would be nice if this was all or mostly compensated for by a very wet winter.  We were having a serious drought in the mid-1900s, and the 1997 flood filled up every reservoir. 

 

2) Far be it from me to believe the weatherman's claims - its the only job where you can be wrong all of the time and still not get fired. The statement in the above article - "While no one can ever perfectly predict climate" should probably read - "While weather predictors are almost never right,"

 

3) Only time well tell if we get a flood during the winter of 2015 - 2016. We are certainly due as the Sierra gets a serious flood about every 10 to 15 years on average, and its been 18 years since the flood of 1997.

 

The attached picture shows the New Years Day Flood, 1997, at a spot on the NF Yuba where you can normally cross without getting your knees wet in the summer time. The river looks completely different at flood stage when the gold is being moved around along with the boulders.

 

 

post-5-0-22966200-1434602848_thumb.jpg

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Saw on the news last night;
Tuna Crabs on California beaches. They typically like warm water, so an invasion like this instills to them (science & weather folks) that the warm tropical water is following the El Nino trend!
The last tuna crab invasion this crazy was 1997! Woot! Nuggies may be rollin this winter

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One can only hope you guys get some much needed moisture in California and a good flood would be a great and much needed bonus.

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yellowtail tuna are shoing up in marinas and at piers in So Cal.  Lets hope we have a winter like  1986.  That was the biggest in my time in the Sierra.  Got to break tracks in 20 plus feet of powder on KT-22 at Squaw Valley.  97 was pretty big too because much of the snowpack in January was melted by the fierce warm El Nino rains. Flooded much of N. CA.  It will happen again

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Keep in mind that those same "experts" forecasting El Nino for winter 2016 also predicted El Nino storms for this winter(2014) and we all know how that played out. They also said that this May would be hot and dry which turned out to be cool and wet. I've lived in SoCal all my life and plenty of El Ninos and the the best indicator for one building is the presence of  Red Tuna crabs on SoCal beaches the summer before and the absence of Humbolt squid the previous winter around here.  I too think a strong El Nino is on the way but not because of what experts say....I believe the crabs

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Think there might be something in it, downunder in tropical NQ, we`ve had two dry wets in a row from El Nino conditions and looks like its getting stronger. More water for you folks to flood the gold out, less for us so the grass doesn`t grow so tall and hide the good stuff. Win! win allround, but I`d rather a good wet and fill the underground, bore is dropping output, have to bath in beer. :)

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I remember 97 well. Seemed like it rained dang near every day from Dec. to Jan. I was roofing in pouring rain, all winter. It sucked!!! But it was either that, or no paycheck.

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