I Am Having To Do A Complete Reset

[Mike Hillis]

My first quarter 2017 result are zero, ziltch, nada for gold jewelry.   Never been like this before once I got some stuff figured out.  I got used to finding a piece every time out, or at least every other time out.   This quarter has resulted in no gold at all.  My most productive sites have dried up.  And its not due to competition from other hunters as i still find plenty of coins and gold range trash.  Just no gold.  It is not being worn by the normal patrons at these sites like before.

The high price of gold has changed everything.   First, people sold off due to the price.  Second, they changed their buying habits due to the price.  Third, the economy is depressed resulting in a further reduction in buying habits.  The game has changed and I am having to learn to change with it.  What were once regular patches for me have dried completely up.  I'm having to do a complete reset.

I know what to do though.  Re focus like a laser on the critical number one key process input: People.

HH
Mike

 

 

[Steve Herschbach]

Hi Mike,

The good news is it's not just you. I have been on a particularly long dry spell myself the last few months. Lots of hours jewelry detecting in what I thought were prime locations and only one decent gold ring to show for it. Not complaining mind you but it has been unusual. I have been chalking it up to exceptional bad luck. I usually do well, sometimes exceptionally well, so I figure now and then there has to be an off streak of sorts. However, there may be more to it than that.

Let's face it, the U.S. not long ago went through the worse financial crisis of our generation. Lots of gold went to those "we buy gold" places. People stopped buying expensive baubles, and started taking better care with the ones they own. It did have an impact, and we may be seeing it now. More important is the long term trend, which has not been good. The chart from this article shows the effect of the recession. Sales bounced back after the recession but the long term trend since 1998 has been downward. Not only that, what jewelry people buy has been of lower quality.

The chart only shows through 2014 and trends may have reversed since then, but I would not bet on it. This article argues otherwise. My little brother just got married, and while his new wife got a nice ring, what was he sporting but one of those hated (by me) tungsten rings! The problem there is most of my finds are men's rings, and tungsten has had an impact. My gut feeling is the younger generation would rather buy the latest new cell phone or other gadget and pass on the jewelry. The iPhone has probably robbed a lot of jewelry sales.

Or maybe I am just having bad luck!

My answer when the chips are down prospecting is to just work harder at it. New locations, more hours. How about this Mike, let's touch bases again later this summer and see if anything changed. Good luck!!

[plidn1]

Only 2 pieces of gold here and not many more silver. Lots of bling, but a very poor showing on the better jewelry.

[strick]

Steve is right. I see lots of folks wearing rubber rings these days.... and then there are the cheap carbide style. In the past it was just gold and silver. I'm happy to find any ring in good condition. I will admit that I picked out a cheap carbide myself.  I once lost a gold wedding band while swimming in Hawaii. Maybe Steve found it? I was in Kaanapali  around 1997.  

strick 

[Deft Tones]

No doubt pickings are getting slim. I pay attention to the rings others wear in my daily travels, and pretty much only the 50+ crowd still wears gold regularly.

The good news is that with all the immigration in the last decade the groups from cultures where only gold is prized for jewelry become the butter.

Old gold is getting harder to find (rings anyway) so I watch where the Mexicans and Cubans play soccer. Hoods - going to have to hunt more hoods too.

Me, I'm currently focused on chains and earrings - the two more easily lost items that are harder for the average detectorist to find.

I see more travel for fresh hunting grounds in my future.

 

Good hunting. Still lots of gold jewelry out there.

[Mike Hillis]

Gold price trending graph.   Comparing to Steve's post showing the fine jewelry and watch sales you can see that the jewelry/watch graph is fairly flat starting in 2002, ignoring the special cause dip in 2008,  until it starts the downward trend in 2012 that doesn't let up.  Comparing to the gold price graph you can see we hit our sustained high prices in mid 2011 through 2013 and then dropped to the new norm.  That new sustained norm from 2013 on wards reflects in the steady decline in sales.

 

 

 

The  other thing that hurts is the sustained clamor of the gold commodities market.  The only way they can get people to buy at today's prices is doom and gloom adverts where they are trying to portray a commodity as a monetary unit in a crisis.  You hear this going on on all the conservative talk shows on the radio.   Just be aware gold has no value until you sell it.  You can have it appraised and place an artificial value on it, but it's real value is only realized when it is sold.  

 

That is a good idea, Steve.  Why don't we all come back and revisit at the end of 2nd quarter and see how we fared?

 

HH
Mike
 

[Swampstomper Al]

As Steve noted: You're not alone.. I don't comment much but have to agree with worst start to a year ever here too (beach exclusively so far..) Zero gold and only one silver, not a ring either.. Even junk bling and (recent drop) coins are down..

On my way to beach now cos low tide soon, but kinda wonder why even bother..? If anything should be heading up filthylucre's way.. Spring break is a completely different animal here on Cocoa Beach than it is @ Daytona Beach..

Swamp

[Ringmoney]

Something must be in the air, I also had my worst start to the year ever, beach wise that is. First quarter was also a blank, zero gold or silver. Thankfully my dry spell was broken with this week with an 1929 4.25g 9 karat.

[johnedoe]

We had a pretty good start for the year as far as finds quantity but no jewelry or silver coinage. 

Found a pendant that had me going there for a minute but turned out to be junk.

Of course where I live isn't exactly a beach hot spot buy any means and the parks and schools are pretty much what I got.