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Zortan's Almanac For Prospectors


zortan

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I thought I would give everyone a quick update on how the weather may play into your detecting plans this spring and summer.  

For a little background we are in a La Nina weather pattern right now.  This is expected to hold with a fair bit of certainty well into March.  In La Nina years the weather patterns change from normal and we see the Northern US get cold and wet while the Southern US gets warm and dry.  This is on a large scale so there may still be some local storms which are quite powerful but we are playing with averages here.  I've attached NOAA reports which are great little graphics that show the status of the snow pack as a percent of normal.  This is important to us as detectorist since the sooner everything dries up the easier it is on us.  Also for prospectors since it will give you a good indication of when high water will happen and when the rivers will be perfect for sluicing.

 

As you can see from the graphics, the northern US is getting its fair share of snow where the jet stream comes across with all that Aleutian moisture.  Normally in a La Nina year we would see more moisture coming into northern Cali, Nevada, and Utah but this year California has packed some crazy high pressure ridges protecting (or cursing depending on your outlook) the entire region from the agony of the jet stream moisture.  This is good news for detectorist since the snow pack will melt much earlier than normal and the soil will dry much quicker.  Places like the Rye patch which are difficult until late June or so will be much easier...probably by the end of May this year.  This could all change though with just one or two good snowstorms so cross your fingers.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the spring though as La Nina loosens its grips.  Thats a report for the future though.  My predictions are as follows......take them for what they are worth.

California-  by the end of the winter I think you will see a more normal snowpack,  I'd expect 75% or so of normal.  With the jet stream sliding so far to the east its gonna drag in some of that moist pacific air and deliver some snow and moisture to the mountains.  Cougars and bears will be very active and attracted to your detectors.  Be careful.

Nevada- I predict most of the moisture from California is going to drop over the sierras and the snow will stay in low amounts.  If you prospect here make plans to get out 2 weeks to a month earlier than usual.  It's going to be the best year ever for Nevada.  I would expect to see many multi-pound nuggets coming from the state this year due to the heavenly weather.

Arizona- It will be brutally hot and dry by April.  You will not be able to prospect at all since the heat will encourage snakes to come out and bite you.  Men were not meant to live in this environment much less prospect.  Those brave enough to get out early in the mornings and late in the evenings will be greeted by very aggressive burros.  Cactus will have a bumper crop this year and you'll get many needles in the bottoms of your shoes.  Let it be man, let it be.

Oregon- While not quite as good as Nevada it will still be decent.  Still lots of gold here and the weather, while not great will still allow many prospectors to hone their craft.  I would expect cold in windy starting in March and not warming up until July.

Any other place- Ehh sorry (including Australia)

nrcs-swe-westwide-02-07-21.jpg

west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

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I didn't see an explanation for the numbers, colors, regions, circles on the map.  Would you please elaborate on those?

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1 hour ago, GB_Amateur said:

I didn't see an explanation for the numbers, colors, regions, circles on the map.  Would you please elaborate on those?

Sure thing.  The numbers are the Snow water equivalent as a percentage of normal.  So right now it looks like the rye patch area has only gotten 79% of its normal snow/precipitation.

 

The dots are the various snotel sites where they take the measurements.

 

Do keep in mind though that one or two good storms could change these numbers drastically but if the pattern holds many places are going to end up only around 60% percent of normal.

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Yeah, it'd be more like sweltering in place.

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Here's the La Oneguy current weather situation in western Montucky...... 6 degrees currently and blowing with about 4" new snow. Power out once today already, possibly again(?).  Long term forecast: Below zero tonight and it'll be quite awhile before anybody dares to leave the warmth of their shacks!

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11 minutes ago, oneguy said:

Here's the La Oneguy current weather situation in western Montucky...... 6 degrees currently and blowing with about 4" new snow. Power out once today already, possibly again(?).  Long term forecast: Below zero tonight and it'll be quite awhile before anybody dares to leave the warmth of their shacks!

Ahh yes, La Niña is tearing up Montana right now.  I’d recommend Arizona with a quickness.  Did you see the news from Texas?  It’s looking pretty bad there.  That warm pacific air is protecting most of the western states but a big storm is coming in from Cali.

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