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Has Anyone Tried To Buy Any Silver Lately?


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38 minutes ago, King-Of-Bling said:

It's not accessibility that's the problem. It's the fact of the price gouging premiums over spot that's the issue. Buying physical silver at $8-10 over spot , you're getting ripped. 

Supply and demand. Physical silver decoupled from paper silver over a year ago.

 

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26 minutes ago, matt said:

Supply and demand. Physical silver decoupled from paper silver over a year ago.

 

PM's decoupled from paper decades ago. But supply and demand ? Hardly....its price manipulation that has been going on for too long now. Big boys been shutting out the little guys. But now you are just starting to see movement  where the little guys are banding together...as in the short seller's of stocks. This is just the beginning. When I tried to buy silver at that $12-13 level within the last few years , I couldn't. As I'm standing in a shop in front of 1000s of ounces of silver. Not unless I wanted to pay in the $18-19 range. A total scam.... THE PEOPLE ARE FED UP !

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All the commodities are breaking out higher.  Wheat corn, beans , copper, steel , etc.  Its all signaling inflation and a lower dollar dead ahead.   The government keeps printing dollars , making them worth less, and everything becomes worth more. 

Protect yourself. 

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48 minutes ago, King-Of-Bling said:

PM's decoupled from paper decades ago. But supply and demand ? Hardly....its price manipulation that has been going on for too long now. Big boys been shutting out the little guys. But now you are just starting to see movement  where the little guys are banding together...as in the short seller's of stocks. This is just the beginning. When I tried to buy silver at that $12-13 level within the last few years , I couldn't. As I'm standing in a shop in front of 1000s of ounces of silver. Not unless I wanted to pay in the $18-19 range. A total scam.... THE PEOPLE ARE FED UP !

The metals markets have been manipulated for a long time. Actually, most commodities have been.  Silver did NOT decouple decades ago. I could buy silver for around spot price a little over a year ago and could sell to my local coin shop for 60-70 cents under spot depending on how much I wanted to sell. It's been that way for several years.

The price of physical metal IS THE PRICE regardless of what the spot price says. It's not like the stores are buying for spot all day long and selling for massive premiums. You should have purchased at $18-$19 (when spot was $14) and you would have doubled your money in regards to today's selling prices for physical metal selling for $34-$37 (spot around $27). Anybody that sells for less than spot in this market should do more research.

The reddit guys moved the market for a couple days and many were millionaires for those couple days. Hopefully some sold when the price was over $400. Most probably rode it to the high and now will ride it back down to the low in hopes it will go back up. Been there done that in late 90's early 2000's tech boom. Yes, the reddit thing was fun to watch for a day but unless you know trading you can lose it all, and then some. I'm fed up too!

Find some gold, have fun doing it and take care!

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Money moves.  Just don't get caught in the wrong position in a MLM, Ponzi or market run by manipulation!

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13 hours ago, Chase Goldman said:

There is a probably a point at which it makes sense to buy low grade, old silver coins as their collectable value may under cut the premium prices of physical silver.  I know this is the case for commonly available older gold coins.

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying.  You mean the  premium (price-over-spot) can be less for circulated silver (or gold) coins than it is for bars and bullion coins when you account for the coins' purity content?  The page I linked previously on this thread includes (supposed) 'best' price for 90% silver Roosevelt dimes (well down the page).  The items on this page are sorted by premium over spot with lowest at top.  So you're saying at some point in the future the Roosies will be at the top of this list (or at least ahead of the purely bullion products)?  Is this 'price inversion' the case for non-numismatic 90% gold coins (minted in the past for circulation) now, or you've seen it that way in the past?

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Spot price is relevant and does reflect a true trade price for some -- those willing to deal in large quantities.  The "little guy" is likely to pay more than spot (and typically also sell for less than spot).  Is there something unfair about this?

Lots of things go into a real price of anything -- storage, transportation, transaction fees (including commissions) are a few of them.  But consider buying something at the grocery store.  Do you pay the same price for a piece of fruit that the farmer who produced it received?  What if instead of buying one apple you buy a bag?  Do you pay the same unit cost in both cases?  When you go to a bulk seller (Costco, Sam's Club are examples) and buy a very large bag of apples is the unit price the same as it is at the grocery store?

Suppose instead of buying apples at the store you go to the orchard where it's grown.  (For those of you who never leave the big city, it's still today in 2020 possible to do this!  :biggrin:)  What (unit) price will you pay there for one apple, a bag of apples, a bushel of apples, a truckload of apples?

Eliminating the middle man is possible, and we see it here on this site all the time.  You can buy/sell a detector without a transaction fee, but you stil have to deal with transportation (usually shipping fee is involved) and maybe a fee to whoever handles the exchange of funds (oops, another middle man).  Note that part of the savings comes from the site (Steve H.) as you don't get charged for the ad.  If you had done this through a newspaper (those still exist, too, but they're dying fast) the seller would have had to pay an extra fee.  What about a yard/garage/tag/rummage sale?  That's a pure form -- buyer hands seller cash for an item, simple as that.  (Well, even there the seller might have had to advertise that there was a sale and the buyer may have had to drive to and from the sale, etc.)

I also recall when the premium (on the little guy) for buying silver through an outlet/dealer was much lower than today's 15% and up.  I don't remember exactly but it seems like it was a few percent (~3% ??) for a 100 oz bar, for example.  It seems there's an opportunity here for an enterprising individual/group to create an online market with smaller buy/sell premiums.  They won't be zero, though.  (Note I've been assuming that the buy premium is negative right now, meaning if you want to sell to a dealer you will receive less than spot.  That isn't always true in general.)  Presently if you want to get a buy price you need to call the dealer; I can't find a buy price on the internet.

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8 minutes ago, GB_Amateur said:

Spot price is relevant and does reflect a true trade price for some -- those willing to deal in large quantities.  The "little guy" is likely to pay more than spot (and typically also sell for less than spot).  Is there something unfair about this?

Lots of things go into a real price of anything -- storage, transportation, transaction fees (including commissions) are a few of them.  But consider buying something at the grocery store.  Do you pay the same price for a piece of fruit that the farmer who produced it received?  What if instead of buying one apple you buy a bag?  Do you pay the same unit cost in both cases?  When you go to a bulk seller (Costco, Sam's Club are examples) and buy a very large bag of apples is the unit price the same as it is at the grocery store?

Suppose instead of buying apples at the store you go to the orchard where it's grown.  (For those of you who never leave the big city, it's still today in 2020 possible to do this!  :biggrin:)  What (unit) price will you pay there for one apple, a bag of apples, a bushel of apples, a truckload of apples?

Eliminating the middle man is possible, and we see it here on this site all the time.  You can buy/sell a detector without a transaction fee, but you stil have to deal with transportation (usually shipping fee is involved) and maybe a fee to whoever handles the exchange of funds (oops, another middle man).  Note that part of the savings comes from the site (Steve H.) as you don't get charged for the ad.  If you had done this through a newspaper (those still exist, too, but they're dying fast) the seller would have had to pay an extra fee.  What about a yard/garage/tag/rummage sale?  That's a pure form -- buyer hands seller cash for an item, simple as that.  (Well, even there the seller might have had to advertise that there was a sale and the buyer may have had to drive to and from the sale, etc.)

I also recall when the premium (on the little guy) for buying silver through an outlet/dealer was much lower than today's 15% and up.  I don't remember exactly but it seems like it was a few percent (~3% ??) for a 100 oz bar, for example.  It seems there's an opportunity here for an enterprising individual/group to create an online market with smaller buy/sell premiums.  They won't be zero, though.  (Note I've been assuming that the buy premium is negative right now, meaning if you want to sell to a dealer you will receive less than spot.  That isn't always true in general.)  Presently if you want to get a buy price you need to call the dealer; I can't find a buy price on the internet.

I agree with everything you say GB. It's just the gouging I don't care for. My option ? I just won't buy. Not until things get more inline , if ever. Around here , dealers are paying a couple bucks below spot. But selling for $8-10 over. That to me is foolish unless you are the dealer. But the integrity and reputation of said dealer is now questionable imo. Of course selling privately and middling is another option through other avenues. I sell alot through OFFER UP. It's easy , free. Sell local and no shipping for cash only. But it can take time and can be a pain dealing with lowballers , etc.

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I prefer data (e.g. actual numbers) to opinions.  Let's take a look at three pertinent plots that pertain to some of the things that have been stated in this discussion.  Then you can (if you wish) form your own opinion based upon these data as to what is going on.  Let's start with the Consumer Price Index 5 year history (so starts at January 2016 with most recent datapoint being from end of January 2021, just released a couple days ago).  The CPI is an indication of price changes for items that most strongly affect individuals, such as the cost of food and the cost of fuel.  See a trend?  Has that overall trend changed over this (60 month) time period?

999893245_Screenshotat2021-02-12133917.png.5ca0a2eb60a501cb998fd3e317b79523.png

Now let's take a look at a commodities price index.  Where are we now compared to the beginning of 2020?  Can you explain what has happened over those 13 months?

430926462_Screenshotat2021-02-12133753.png.338b83ba101ce54a61277435ddedc083.png

Lastly, take a look at the current gold futures prices

971625493_Screenshotat2021-02-12133716.thumb.png.f686500a79586a01aa5468283983bf4a.png

I suggest either focusing on the LAST reported trade column or the PRIOR SETTLE (yesterday's close) column, and in particular the current month (for delivery at the end of February) and FEB 2022 (for delivery a year from now).  See much difference in those values between now and next year?

Note:  you can look at the silver futures prices on this website, too.  I chose gold because it's more of a standard.

Commodities futures trading is most simply thought of as having two components:  hedging and speculating.  Hedgers lock in prices for their future use.  For example, if you are a big user of aluminum (in production) and want to make sure you won't get slammed by a big price increase, you lock in a price that protects you from that price increase.  Speculation is just that -- trying to profit for the sake of profit from a change in the price.  Note that there are hedgers and speculators on both sides -- buyers and sellers.  The settlement price (those shown) occur when those two sides agree and commit.  Those involved in buying and selling commodities include the 'big hitters'.  (Small investors are present, too.)  Think of them as people who put their (big) money where their (big) mouth is.

Oh, a couple more things.  Where was this Feb 2021 contract a year ago?  On Feb 3 it was ~$1590.  So, the 'smart money' was wrong to the tune of about $240 at that time (since we're now about $1830).  They aren't always right.  What if the Feb 2022 contract were considerably higher than it is today (as shown in the above table).  Let's say $2030.  What would happen?  Well, this is hypothetical so we don't know.  But there would likely be upward pressure on the Feb 2021 price and downward pressure on the Feb 2022 price to pull the two closer together.  Thinking of it that way, the (actual) current price is in some ways already a reflection of what is expected to happen in the future, as well as vice versa.

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  • 2 weeks later...

GB, bring up the CRB commodity index over the last ten or so years. Commodities have been in a downtrend, and started breaking out to the upside, last fall.  

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