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Codan / Minelab Stock Price Down


phrunt

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At some point the entire metal detector industry has to reach peak saturation of sales. It’s been hot for a while with the release of Equinox and Vanquish, added to the popularity of treasure hunting shows and YouTube metal detecting channels. But at some point everyone who has wanted to try metal detecting and can afford to has given it a go. In the US anyway most people don’t stick with it. There’s less to find and more competition for what is out there. As more people give up the used market gets more of the market share. The stock market is all about projection, even if it’s based on the thinnest suspicion about what the future holds. You can bet Codan investors would be looking at things like market saturation, the second hand market, competitor projections and projected releases, inflation, the economic condition overall and how much disposable income is out there, gas and energy prices (when high people sit home or travel less), chip shortages, supply line issues. All these factors seem to be going the opposite way investors might feel comfortable with. There’s also more hedge fund predators tanking stock than ever before and you never know when they’ve got their eye on a given company until you do see a sharp and sudden drop in stock. War in Afghanistan has ended, as the West backs off from the Middle East. That could affect countermine sales. You’ve got Covid and Covid restrictions ebbing and flowing. New treasure hunting legislation in the UK. More around the world as the hobby has grown and garnered more attention. 
 

Im wondering how much a next generation hobby machine would really boost stock. It would be hard to imagine since it would seem targeted at the top tier of detectorists, a smaller piece of the pie. You can ask for a higher profit margin from those folks, but it wouldn’t seem enough to make up for the volume at the low to mid tier. Maybe if they kept it around $1,500. Deus is very common to see out there despite its tag. CTX at $2,500 has been more of a unicorn to see out there and at rallies. The used market is saturated with CTXs. Anybody who wants one will have no trouble finding one between $1200-$1500 often loaded with accessories. 

 

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A lot of Australian shares tanked and took a BIG hit over that time frame, even gold took a dump there at one stage (my superannuation was another frightener, I really do need to stop looking at it so regularly 😞). 

A lower share price might mean a good opportunity to get in cheap on quality undervalued shares especially now that gold is climbing again. 🤔  

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That's a bummer your super hasn't performed well, the ASX has been doing exceptionally well over the past year, it's well up, peaks and troughs of course but I think most would be happy with their super performance during this pandemic as it's well up.

My Aussie and Kiwi Superannuation are both going gangbusters.

Here is the ASX for the past 12 months.  Leveled off a bit now but well up over all. It's certainly not the trend of the Codan shares and I wonder what will trigger a rebound on them, something would fundamentally have to change for them to double in value to catch up to where they were 6 months ago.  I'd put them as a risky share to buy at the moment with as much chance of falling further as going up especially as competition is heating up on their VLF's.  Hopefully something new is in the making from them that might cause some excitement.

 

ASX.jpg.fc6c099da770ab2f7cc1b34f5590823f.jpg

 

It never pays to keep an eye on your super unless you're near retirement 🙂  For me that money basically doesn't exist, so far away I don't care about it, it's just an added bonus at the time to fund a bunch of world cruises or whatever other thing retirees are doing at the time.  Perhaps trip to the Moon or Mars 🙂

When I did the first post on this thread Codan were $9.81, they're now $9.61

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Share price valuations can be decoupled from fundamentals and often depend on market/sector forces, including artificial price manipulations. The fact that a share price drops does not necessarily mean that the underlying fundamentals are weak. Think of the stock market as a giant casino. It really isn't much more than that.  

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23 hours ago, phrunt said:

That's a bummer your super hasn't performed well.......

My super has been doing pretty OK this year too thanks, but it did take a tumble there at one stage along with the gold price. I often see their shares get a bit flighty when the Gold Price bounces around. A lowering trend just means an opportunity for people to buy in cheap IMHO, gutsing it out before you grab a bargain is the hard part or if you invested when it was higher gritting your teeth during the downward trends 😣

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Agreed. It's like shaking the apple tree. The weak ones will fall down and give room for new ones to grow. Gold is likely to fall further as the USD is strongly advancing due to global fear. This will be a great buying opportunity at some point. In the long run Codan has only one direction: up, with ML being a significant contributor. But a bumpy ride will be ahead in the near term.

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2 hours ago, Rivers rat said:

I tried to buy once but i cant as i am abroad.............

This will likely help.  https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-au/stockbroking/international-shares

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On 11/27/2021 at 11:31 PM, phrunt said:

Merci!!!

 

Sorry just saw your reply,was in Tunisia :) lots of good gold there but ..........i need excavators

 

 

RR

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  • 2 months later...

Codan appear to be continuing their share price free fall, they'll have to bottom out soon you'd think.  I would not be surprised if they drop significantly further yet though.

944507444_Codan6months.thumb.png.28d78dd33a26621e42085806fcfa78a0.png

This is the last 6 months, a significant drop, it was only July last year they were $18.62 now today they're $7.21 and still falling.  Going down 19.17% in the past month alone.

687774225_Codan1month.thumb.jpg.6c5d9f6d306098c36c261654f654b2f4.jpg

This is the past month continuing the downward trend.

I guess gone are the days a new detector release drives up their share price, it went crazy with the Equinox, certainly not the same response to the GPX 6000.  Perhaps if there comes an Equinox 1000 things might change in a positive direction as there is nothing I can see that is going to improve their price at the moment other than a new release or a drastic uptake of the GPX 6000 from a giant nugget the size of a house being found somewhere in Australia sparking a new gold rush inspiring the Grey Nomads to dip into their kids inheritance and take up gold detecting.   It makes you wonder if their high price model is working as well as intended in Africa with people having limited funds.  Sure they might sell what they consider a lot, but how much more would it have been if they were more affordable? They'll likely never know, but another manufacturer that makes better value detectors might at some point in the future.

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