Lynk

I haven't paid attention to what time zones the company has focused live events on in the past, but that's a great observation about connecting the best time to the end market if they have historically varied.  

Funny, checked after your post and the local times for the announcement are on Minelab's FB page.

330 PM Chicago Dec 1 / 800 PM Dec 2 Adelaide

Sorry to repost, but something is coming in FY23:

https://codan.com.au/investor-centre/presentations/

It's the August 24th transcript -

Sure. And the new gold detector releases that you've spoken that might be in the pipeline, are they still an FY23 event? Or, are they pushed out to later years now?

The second-half of 2023.

Second-half of '23. So, around that February period.

I think it's a bit later than that. Yeah. Yeah. 

Management had commented Minelab does plan to release a new gold detector in the second half of its fiscal year.  It would also be smart of them to announce it now to try to distract attention from the Axiom. While I don't know a new Monster does much distracting, doesn't it seem a likely candidate given its age? 

Even though I am not likely a first adopter this stuff is fun to follow, speculate on, and certainly excites the forum.  

In the last earnings call Codan held on August 22, management said they have a new gold detector(s) release planned for the second half of 2023.  A Monster (or SDC type) replacement makes sense and the timing of this deal isn't out of line with the commentary. 

Analyst -

"And the new gold detector releases that you've sort of spoken that might be in the pipeline, are they still in FY'23 event? Or are they pushed to later years now?"

CFO - 

"Second half of 2023."

Analyst - 

"Second half of '23, so around that sort of February period?"

CFO - 

" I think it's later than that. We've not really factored them into our comments, Jason, because they look more back end of the financial year. So..."

Whatever the case is, all we really know for sure is there is a great deal on the table for someone looking for this combo now.

On 10/28/2022 at 3:39 PM, Cal_Cobra said:

Nice job!  Reminds me of the days when @Mike Hillisdid all the great C$ charts and graphs 👍

@Lynk could you make this downloadable? 

Thank you.

I think I've inserted it. It doesn't look like I can attached an Excel file, but zip folders are OK. The Excel file is in the zip folder. I hope this helps (and works).

Metal Detector Comparison 2022.10.24.zip

Jeff - Thank you for all this work and sharing your results.  Also, I hope you heal fast and are back in the field as soon as possible.

GotAU - Great idea. I had a minute, so I took a crack at it. It would be great to see what your students produce, too. 

If there are any errors here let me know and I will fix them.

jasong brings up a good point that asset prices are not absolute, but relative to other assets. When we quote the price of gold, it's usually in USD. That said, what's the price of USD?

The US Federal Reserve has been the most aggressive in raising rates, which is attracting capital looking for yield, and as Phrunt points out, safety.  

Gold in Yen is up over 20% in the last year, but the Japanese central bank is bent on keeping rates at zero. So much so that it recently stepped in to prop up the Yen for the first time since the late 90's. 

Ultimately, I cognitively separate the riddle of the gold markets and riddle of putting gold under the coil or in the box. It's a certainty I will still be avidly reading this forum and on the hunt if gold trades back to a sub $300 range. (In USD to be clear!)

There are two more Fed meetings this year - 11/2 and 12/14.  The market currently prices in a 93% chance of another 75bp (basis points or 3/4 of a full percentage point) in November and a 96% chance of 50bp in December. 

Hikes are priced in through the May meeting, although to a much lesser degree.  Starting in June the markets see a higher probability of rates being cut.

It's important to note these are just expectations and they adjust with every significant economic update.

All else being equal, rates moving into real (government rates less inflation) territory make it hard for the price of gold to move higher.

The price of gold is driven by a number of different factors starting with basic supply and demand. Those drivers are more than just production and non-investment consumption, though. Price drivers get more complicated from an investor's perspective as gold is generally priced in US dollars and will move depending on what the dollar is doing relative to other currencies. 

Price is further complicated by the fact the dollar and gold move relative to real interest rates (think a treasury yield minus inflation).  If real rates move up or are at least expected to relative to other currencies than investors will push up the dollar.  A higher dollar would generally be a negative factor for the price of gold. 

Also, if investors can earn a positive real yield than gold is less attractive as it doesn't pay anything.  If real yields are negative, than than gold is more attractive as the dollar is likely losing buying power.

On Russia, the gold it produces and wants to sell will likely leak into the market. Both India and China have been buying Russian crude.