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I Want To See What Minelab & Garrett Is Bringing To The Table


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I reviewed the transcripts from their Feb-21 earnings report.  Honestly they mostly talk about everything Codan does EXCEPT metal detectors, but they did get some questions from analysts regarding their "consumer" products (aka Metal detectors) and here's what they said (I didn't realize Garrett was larger then Minelab at that point):

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Transcript of CDA.AX earnings conference call or presentation 18-Feb-21 12:01am GMT

Look, just firstly, on metal detection. You mentioned during the call that recreational is now an $8 million to $10 million a month business for you. But roughly what sort of global market share do you think that now implies for Codan in recreational? And has there been any competitive responses worth noting over the last sort of 6 to 12 months since you launched products such as the VANQUISH? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Donald S. McGurk, Codan Limited - MD, CEO & Executive Director [24] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Okay. Good question, Ronan. I think we -- I think in the last call, we spent some time trying to educate the market that we weren't the biggest in the consumer space at that time. I think, Garrett, we believe, were bigger than us. They had a bigger share, particularly in America. I think we are fast-changing that market share dynamic. So at $12 million for last month, we know that we'd be #1 in the market now and we would have the biggest share. But that still wouldn't give us what I would call a monopolistic position. It's certainly not as strong as our gold position, which we estimate at between 80% and 90% share. We're probably moving towards closer to 50%. So we're probably coming up from 35% to 50% would be the latest information we have. The objective is to try and keep play into some of our competitors with some of the new product releases that we have coming and try and get up towards the 60%, 70% as time goes on over the next couple of years. I think it's been difficult for people to respond. I think we saw Garrett come out with a product to respond to the VANQUISH and they quickly almost withdrawn it from the market to rehash it because it just hasn't been successful. So people are now panicking. I think they're trying to do things with their products that the architecture of the design just won't allow. So we've taken comparative products in-house. We've looked at their intents at multifrequency, and quite frankly, the physics don't stack up. So they would have to go and completely reengineer their platforms in order to compete with products like EQUINOX and VANQUISH, which we don't expect them to be able to do. So we've kind of got them on the run, Ronan.

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That was the only mention of the Equinox in the entire transcript.   What a read on Garretts APEX though!!!

If anyone cares to read the transcript in its entirety here you go:  https://www.yahoo.com/now/edited-transcript-cda-ax-earnings-000100002.html

Interestingly from a stock market perspective, Codan has largely been a penny stock (stock under $5/share is considered a penny stock in the U.S.) for the past ten years. 

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The objective is to try and keep play into some of our competitors with some of the new product releases that we have coming

Equinox 1000?

Damn it, I didn't need this, it's been hard enough to decide which detector to buy with two new kids on the block, a third will make my ears smoke.

This is also interesting, "that strategy has been absolutely sensational for us over the last 3 or 4 years and I think, marked by the performance in Minelab. Minelab, if we go back 3 years ago, was really heavily dependent on gold with 1 product into 3 African markets. Today, we have a product lineup that is much, much more significant. So we have 3 major gold platforms selling into dozens of countries in Africa and around the world. With respect to our consumer business, I think I've been quoted previously as saying that the consumer business over time, we think, has the potential to overtake our gold business. And you can see some signs of that happening already."

It fits with what I was told that the GPX 5000 was the big seller into Africa not any other Minelab gold detector.  I am guessing the 3 gold products now successful into Africa are the GM1000, GPX 5000 and the 3rd I guess has to be either the GPZ or GPX 6000 but I'm sure in much less quantity than the other two.

And this is also interesting

The GPZ -- GPX 6000, rather, is a brand-new product that will be revolutionary, we believe, in high-end gold detecting. It's a product that's been purpose-built for the African market. It's plug and play. It's simple to use, lightweight, collapsible, waterproof and at a price point that sits below the GPZ but is still very attractive for us. We will launch that product -- we have launched that product, that we will see meaningful volume come through in Q4.

So sales of the 6000 weren't immediately strong, could be constraint with shipping or production, they're thinking volume will be in Q4, interesting to see if that materialized.  Obviously purpose built for the African market although I don't know why he thinks the product is waterproof, typical CEO ?

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I don't follow their gold detectors, so I was wondering when they made that statement (Feb 2021) if they were hinting at gold detectors.  Didn't they release a couple of gold machines since Feb 2021? 

They're definitely keeping an eye on their competitors.  Probably testing their machines to verify if competitors have pilfered any of their patents, as well as curiosity.  

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Just the GPX 6000 but they said at the time the 6000 had already been released and there has been nothing since so I don't know what the other new products could be, their ambition is clearly taking over the coin and jewellery market though, the Equinox got them closer but they need more and they were aware of that at the time as the new releases were needed to gain more ground.  They consider the coin/jewellery machines as a bit of resilience for if the gold market crumbles away and the way they said they think it will take over the gold machines which are at 80-90%.

"It's certainly not as strong as our gold position, which we estimate at between 80% and 90% share. We're probably moving towards closer to 50%. So we're probably coming up from 35% to 50% would be the latest information we have. The objective is to try and keep play into some of our competitors with some of the new product releases that we have coming and try and get up towards the 60%, 70% as time goes on over the next couple of years. I think it's been difficult for people to respond. I think we saw Garrett come out with a product to respond to the VANQUISH and they quickly almost withdrawn it from the market to rehash it because it just hasn't been successful. So people are now panicking. I think they're trying to do things with their products that the architecture of the design just won't allow. So we've taken comparative products in-house. We've looked at their intents at multifrequency, and quite frankly, the physics don't stack up. So they would have to go and completely reengineer their platforms in order to compete with products like EQUINOX and VANQUISH, which we don't expect them to be able to do. So we've kind of got them on the run, Ronan."

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6 hours ago, Cal_Cobra said:

I think we saw Garrett come out with a product to respond to the VANQUISH and they quickly almost withdrawn it from the market to rehash it because it just hasn't been successful. So people are now panicking. I think they're trying to do things with their products that the architecture of the design just won't allow. So we've taken comparative products in-house. We've looked at their intents at multifrequency, and quite frankly, the physics don't stack up. So they would have to go and completely reengineer their platforms in order to compete with products like EQUINOX and VANQUISH, which we don't expect them to be able to do. So we've kind of got them on the run, Ronan.

Assuming this is true, then the "AT Apex" is probably several years away...

Wow...

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41 minutes ago, mh9162013 said:

Assuming this is true, then the "AT Apex" is probably several years away.

I'd rather hear what Garrett has to say about their own products than what Minelab has to say about Garrett's products.  Fox reporting on the henhouse....  Today I suspect their focus is on a couple other companies.  The narrative is likely going to be different at the next stockholders' meeting.

7 hours ago, Cal_Cobra said:

...I was wondering when they made that statement (Feb 2021)....

So this Q&A session was from a year ago now?  Hopefully that means there will be another one shortly.

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15 minutes ago, GB_Amateur said:

I'd rather hear what Garrett has to say about their own products than what Minelab has to say about Garrett's products.  Fox reporting on the henhouse....

So your'e saying the CEO* knowingly lied about Minelab's view of Garrett's ability to produce SMF hobby detectors?

Or are you saying the CEO of Minelab is confused or ignorant about Garrett's progress in making a SMF detector that can compete with Minelab's MIQ machines?

I'm not saying the CEO is right (although I believe the CEO is), but I don't think the CEO would make such bold statements unless he/she had a pretty good basis for making them.

 

 

* It's my understanding that it was the CEO that made the statement's we're discussing right now.

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49 minutes ago, mh9162013 said:

So your'e saying the CEO lied...

Lying implies intent to deceive, in my book anyway.  Many people have a way of viewing the world through rose colored glasses.  CEO's are human -- very human.  Do company officers, when presented with more than one plausible explanation, choose the option that makes their company look better?

Was he lying?  Possibly, but IMO strong accusations require strong evidence.  Is what he said accurate?  Possibly.  And that means what he said is possibly inaccurate.

I'll rephrase my statement:  Garrett likely knows more about what is going on inside Garrett than Minelab does.  That is what my post meant, nothing more but certainly nothing less, either.

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