Under 4 Pound, Under $2000 Gbpi Challenge

[GB_Amateur]

I still see the challenge as "under 4 lb, under $2000."  Is it realistic to think that ML (without a competitor's release, and I don't mean the Axiom at its current price) will lower both the weight and cost of the GPX5000 to meet the challenge?  And If Nokta really is afraid to jump into the low cost PI market after their new Simplex got torched by the ML X-Terra Pro, then ML has no incentive. 

But on the positive side, the Nokta Legend kicked ML from behind while they were wining and dining their shareholders, bragging about the Equinox stranglehold on the IB/VLF market.  So there's an existence proof and Nokta certainly has the incentive for revenge after what happened with the Simplex.  With their track record I'm not counting them out.

[Steve Herschbach]

“Reduced reliance on Africa” means sales in Africa collapsed, how do we spin that as a positive? Go after the coin market, go after new markets, cut out the dealer network in preference to direct to consumer, etc. Near impossible however to replace the gold rush bubble in nugget detector sales with sales of much lower price detectors.

3 hours ago, GB_Amateur said:

I still see the challenge as "under 4 lb, under $2000."  Is it realistic to think that ML (without a competitor's release, and I don't mean the Axiom at its current price) will lower both the weight and cost of the GPX5000 to meet the challenge?  And If Nokta really is afraid to jump into the low cost PI market after their new Simplex got torched by the ML X-Terra Pro, then ML has no incentive. 

A low cost GPX 5500 is predicated on Nokta pulling out a Simplex PI at under $2000. Minelab can resume with the Xterra PI. In other words, yes, they can and will produce a low price PI, but only when they are forced to by the competition. The number one reason I’ve beat the drum to get the competition to come out with something like this has always been to get Minelab to have to respond in kind. It’s not that I want a Nokta or a Fisher or a Garrett per se. I’m all in for a GPX 5000 at 4 lbs and $2000 and that has been my basic goal all along. Make it submersible for the beach - home run! 

But it never happens without real competition. You can bet if the Axiom had been $1995 there would be sleepless nights at Minelab, but Garrett instead gave Minelab more room to run. What happens to Garrett’s investment if Minelab pulls the rug out from under the Axiom? Minelab play’s for blood, and would probably not mind giving Garrett a bloody nose. Another part of their strategy is to give no quarter, and putting down competitors is a good way to gain market share. Garrett as much as anyone is squarely in Minelabs crosshairs.

Big dates right ahead, with clues to the future. I’d expect any tipping of their hand to come at the October 24 Annual General Meeting, where they normally try to pump investors up on the year ahead.

Upcoming events on Codan Limited

08-16-2023 Q4 2023 Earnings Release

10-24-2023 Annual General Meeting

02-20-2024 Q2 2024 Earnings Release (Projected)

08-13-2024 Q4 2024 Earnings Release (Projected)

[jasong]

I'm not going to win anyone over with this comment, but: the 5000 is an obsolete platform to me (Old electronics, old packaging), a cheaper, ergonomic 5000 would be a snoozer IMO. I guess there is still a market for the relic crowd though? I think that machine needs to die, everything about it is outdated. The idea that Nokta or Fisher might release a TDI/QED type detector similarly makes me cringe, no thanks, not in 2023.

I'd rather they just go with the 6000 platform instead now that the bugs are known and kill the 5000. Make a 6500 with a true manual mode and the ability to switch to a deeper 5000-like timing with no ultra-small gold sensitivity and where you can use larger coils so the deep nugget and relic crowds have use for it too. Using old coils would be nice, but it won't happen. Sale the 6000 down to $4000 and the 5000 at $2000 to have something to compete with the smaller companies with zero effort.

Similarly, the 7000 platform is IMO obsolete now too. Largely because of the physical package. An 8000 seems required there and not a 7500. And with that one, a ZVT/PI hybrid would be nice - if possible. Since the gold market is shrinking it could be used for the relic crowd too in PI mode for maximum depth. Concentrics would be an easy 20-40% depth gain on the ZVT side for marketing to chew on, and a lightweight package would probably be enough to convince many 7000 owners to switch if it wasn't over $8000, which is a crazy number but probably what it'd be if a 6500 was $6000. 

[Steve Herschbach]

The detector is not aimed at people willing to spend big bucks for cutting edge tech. Not everyone is made of money Jason. If that were true then the GPX 5000 would have died long ago, and it has not. Nor has the SDC 2300 etc. A market exists for the under 4 lb under $2000 PI detector. It’s not one market, it’s many - gold nuggets, relic, beach, even coins. The only question is how much detector will we get at that price point. And it will happen. It’s inevitable.

[phrunt]

54 minutes ago, jasong said:

I'd rather they just go with the 6000 platform instead now that the bugs are known and kill the 5000. Make a 6500 with a true manual mode and the ability to switch to a deeper 5000-like timing with no ultra-small gold sensitivity and where you can use larger coils so the deep nugget and relic crowds have use for it too. Using old coils would be nice, but it won't happen. Sale the 6000 down to $4000 and the 5000 at $2000 to have something to compete with the smaller companies with zero effort.

Similarly, the 7000 platform is IMO obsolete now too. Largely because of the physical package. An 8000 seems required there and not a 7500. And with that one, a ZVT/PI hybrid would be nice - if possible. Since the gold market is shrinking it could be used for the relic crowd too in PI mode for maximum depth. Concentrics would be an easy 20-40% depth gain on the ZVT side for marketing to chew on, and a lightweight package would probably be enough to convince many 7000 owners to switch if it wasn't over $8000, which is a crazy number but probably what it'd be if a 6500 was $6000. 

I can see the 6000 dropping down to be the entry level PI when the 5000 is discontinued in the distant future, and the 6500 will be the 6000 with the features it should have had from the get-go, some more manual control,  It will have more than the sensitive shallow gold mode it currently runs off it will have the viability of bigger coils which it can't have now as there are really no benefits to doing so, SDC users know what I'm talking about when they throw bigger Coiltek coils onto it, imagine throwing a 19" coil on the SDC, crazy talk, no depth gains for swinging around such a big coil.  It's why NF wisely stuck with 16x10" and Coiltek the 14x9" good ground coverage without the larger size coil being pointless with no real major extra depth.  The 6000's got some good depth to it, but it would have even more if it could run big coils, and that's where they've left room for the 6500.

It's almost like they plan their detectors so there is room to move for a new model, they did the same with the GPZ by limiting coils.

With the African market collapsing and revenue from gold detectors falling off a cliff I can't see them in any rush to bring out a new PI or ZVT in the near future, it doesn't make marketing sense to release a detector when sales of it will be quite low, if Africa can somehow recover or another market emerges in South America or somewhere then they may do something.  Let's remember the 6000 was released for targeting the African market with the ease of use Gold Monster style, the early images blasted all over their website were showing African prospectors using it to find gold like they did the Gold Monster also, now that's changed a bit the African market has dried up with the current image off the site looking like an Aussie Prospector which is probably their biggest market again now. 🙂

I don't know if you remember the earlier images, vastly different.

They're chasing a new market of coin, relic and beach hunters for the time being but it's a dwindling crowd too with the good finds especially for coin hunters drying up, add to that the world economy being stuffed it's not the time to sell high priced gold detectors.

I takes a certain level of crazy for people like me to buy high end gold machines, and most people are more sensible than me and refuse to pay the silly prices for a hobby machine, so a lower priced gold detector with 5000 type performance has the potential to be a great seller to get people that are happy to pay VLF prices but not gold detector prices, even Manticore/CTX and Deus 2 prices are way outside of what most people even hard core coin and jewellery hunters are willing to pay for a detector, so selling a lot of people a PI at the crazy prices just isn't going to happen.  A PI at the right price has potential to be a very good seller regardless of if it's the best gold detector on the market, it doesn't need to be, it needs to be affordable and good enough to use with confidence.

[GB_Amateur]

8 hours ago, phrunt said:

They're chasing a new market of coin, relic and beach hunters for the time being but it's a dwindling crowd too with the good finds especially for coin hunters drying up,...

For a lot of coin hunters, the good finds are deeper than the IB/VLF's can reach.  That's where a high powered PI would enter, but those spoiled with cherry-picking discrimination habits will have to toughen up, and that goes for digging deeper, too.  I realize many park hunters can't use anything more than a screwdriver so for them it's a no-go.  I'm a tweener using a hand-held garden tool.  And like it or not, there still are the "wanna be like (YouTube) Mike" clones who flaunt the long handled shovels.... 

I'd gladly recover a couple oldies an afternoon and trade in a bagful of clad and Stinkin finds for the privilege.

[Steve Herschbach]

13 hours ago, phrunt said:

With the African market collapsing and revenue from gold detectors falling off a cliff I can't see them in any rush to bring out a new PI or ZVT in the near future

They don't have any choice. What are many people here waiting for? The GPZ8000. The endless upgrade cycle has gone on for 20 years. Can they get people to do it one more time before there is not enough gold left to justify a very expensive detector. They no doubt have years of development costs to recoup at this point, so it will release, and I'm guessing sooner than later. Like next year.

[phrunt]

It sure is going to be interesting how this plays out, a release soon would be damaging, so many have just bought a 6000, they'll be wary about buying an 8000 and taking the loss on their 6000 as they upgrade.  Minelab will also struggle to sell 6000's as many people will pick them up second hand still with warranty from those that do upgrade to 8000's so they get an 8000 sale but likely lose a potential 6000 sale in the process. 

It would also have to be significantly better than the 6000 and 7000 to sell well in a bad economic climate with their big sales market now gone, a tough ask, while the comparison videos Youtubers do aren't aways that great they get huge amounts of hits when new products come out, why? because people are trying to decide if they want one and these "influencers' play a bigger part in the remaining markets, not so much in Africa I would guess.

I'm likely done myself, no GPZ 8000 for me, some extra big target depth won't change my life, I have that available to me right now with very large coils that I just won't likely use, finding even smaller gold wouldn't matter either, I can do that with my VLF's in my mild soils.  I don't care about the GPZ weight, never once bothered me at all and especially not $8000 to $10,000 bother me however I mostly use small coils on it and I'm ambidextrous and do tend to swap arms throughout the day.  I guess in a way my mild hunting environment meant potential new detectors struggle to be better than older ones far more than people in more difficult areas.  If I had to run my GPZ in difficult I wouldn't be near as impressed with it, by being in normal all the time it's tough for the 6000 to compete with it even on the smallest gold so I'm more wary than many about any performance improvements the 8000 may bring but I see Aussies that run 7000's in difficult all the time very impressed with the 6000.

I'll be excited to see what they've done with it, but highly unlikely to buy it, I'm more likely to buy Nokta's cheaper PI if it comes out, I'd be using an Axiom if it wasn't 6000 price here, I'd like try alternative brands and see how they go and with the Nokta the price isn't going to be at the level you need to consider selling off kidneys, the cheaper they do it the more likely I'll buy it.

[jasong]

I thought we were over the whole "rehash a 15 year old model" thing that killed of the US manufacturers? 😁The 5000 is like 13 years old now? Too little, too late IMO.

I feel like 10 years ago was the time for a $2000 lightweight PI to take the gold world by storm. If it weren't for relics/coins, I'd say it would be a nonstarter at this point. A 5000 in the flogged goldfields in the hand of a greenhorn is almost a surefire recipe for frustration/failure today, I no longer would recommend one to a new guy, and after them it's mostly just the guys with SDC/35/45/5000's looking to upgrade and that demographic is shrinking monthly. 

I think both the 5000 and 7000 platforms should be discontinued in terms of prospecting models as they are both fundamentally flawed platforms IMO and it's better to build something new instead. If they rehash the 5000, I hope they market it primarily as a coin/relic machine and don't count that one as a prospecting release. 

I can't imagine many 7000's are being sold these days, though I just made some dealer a sale on one to a guy who bought a claim from me, because there is nothing else comparable still. I haven't talked to anyone who bought a new 6000 for about 8 or 10 months now so I have to imagine those sales are declining now too. Seems like the value of both these models will be on a forever downward trend. 

I think Minelab should just release a lightweight 8000 with concentrics and undersell their own existing arguably obsolete product line, make one last machine that appeals to all active users. Price it at $5000 and get the 5000, 6000, 7000, and X Coils customers in on it. They can't be losing many sales on those older machines by doing it. Will it happen? Doubtful. But that's what I want to see, and I'd not shed a tear about the 5, 6, and 7 platforms going away totally. If they want to do a 5000-rehash for anything other than relic/coin customers, I think they'd be better off just using the 6000 platform and adding 5000-functionality in because a rehash is probably going to be chipped anyways so you can't use your old coils and gotta pay the piper in either case and might as well use modern electronics. 

[phrunt]

You think too much as a serious hard core prospector Jason, there is a big market for people that just want to do it for fun and hopefully find something, and for them buying a 6000 or 7000 at current prices is just way out of reality.  A detector priced not much more than a VLF has potential to sell very well, even if it is 10+ year old technology rehashed.  The 6000 is just rehashed old technology too, almost everything always is, it's just how far they improve the old technology that matters and I really think they could release a rehashed 5000 that's superior to the 6000.

For coin hunters the entry level type machines highly likely outsell the high end units, Fisher are still pumping out masses of cheap entry level detectors and selling a lot of them.  Vanquishes and Simplex models fly off the shelves.

You also think about your situation in the USA, people are running around in Australia finding decent gold regularly with QED's, and the 5000 for the most part is much better than a QED, many still use 4500's and 5000's with great success there, even older models and still do much better than I could imagine of doing here even with the best of the best gear.  So a rehashed light weight 5000 at a good price would be a hit in a market like that.

A more automatic 5000 with far less configuration options, but still enough to be very useful would be great, they maybe able to close up a lot of the holes in detection the 5000 has after all they did that with the 6000.  

I think a rehashed 5000 is more than likely capable of sitting above the 6000 in the lineup and the 6000 be the cheaper unit.  It could have multiple timings, one of which the 6000's super sensitive one but also a deeper gold timing as part of its options, cutting out some of the small target sensitivity but increasing depth.  It could handle hot rocks far better, difficult ground better too all by having some options.  

The 6000 opened up a lot of small gold people were missing and it's made it very popular for that reason, combined with its feather light weight but they could have made a 6000 "Pro" that was far more advanced with options, even a fixed ground balance option.

The 6000's a great beginners prospecting machine as its so simple to use but I can't imagine many experienced users aren't wishing it had a few more options here and there so it does open up an area for a machine between the 6000 and possible future 8000.

Someone's job is probably sitting there thinking how can we use this technology we have to release a new model that customers will love but hold back enough of the technology so we can release the next model with minimal investment, this is what happens when there is no competition and I think they did that with the 7000, but something unexpected happened that messed up that plan to some extent.